Is cheap rice a poll game changer?

Times of India, March 26, 2009

NEW DELHI: Do promises of hugely subsidised rice for the poor prove a game-changer in elections? This a question that stares us in the face as
parties queue up to shower rice on the voter. This is certainly not the first time promises of cheap grain have been made, but the idea seems to have gained currency much more than in the past.

So why is the idea suddenly so hot, even though it was first offered 42 years ago? In 1967, DMK pledged it would give in Tamil Nadu three measures of rice for one rupee. That was the first time it swept to power in the state. Ironically, the promise was not quite fulfilled.

NTR Rama Rao took a leaf out of Tamil Nadu in 1983 when he borrowed Anna's winning formula and offered rice at Rs 2 per kg. His newly formed TDP ended up winning more than two-thirds of the seats in the assembly, a stunning achievement considering that the party was so new that its MLAs were officially characterized as "independents" — possibly the only occasion when independents have won a majority in an election.

That too was 26 years ago. But suddenly last year, it was the Big Idea for politicians. In 2008, as many as six states saw parties promising, or governments giving, subsidised grain to the poor. The year began with the Chhattisgarh government introducing a scheme of 35 kg of rice at Rs 3 per kg for families below the poverty line (BPL). In April, the Madhya Pradesh government followed suit, announcing 20 kg of wheat at Rs 3 per kg or 20 kg of rice at Rs 4.5 per kg for the poor.

In the same month, the Andhra Pradesh government launched a Rs 2 per kg of rice scheme for BPL families and in neighbouring Karnataka the BJP made a similar promise a key plank in its election manifesto. In August, Naveen Patnaik in Orissa also declared that the state would provide 25 kg of rice at Rs 2 per kg to BPL families and also to those above the poverty line in the districts of Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput.

In September last year, M Karunanidhi chose the occasion of birth centenary of C Annadurai to announce that all ration card holders would be given rice at Re 1 per kg, Tamil Nadu having introduced a 2-rupee scheme in 2006 in fulfilling a promise made by the DMK. Look at electoral dividends and you'll realise why the idea is so hot.

Karunanidhi in TN, Shivraj Chauhan in MP, Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh and Yediyurappa in Karnataka all won the polls following the promise or delivery of cheap grain. Patnaik had the satisfaction of a stupendous show in the local body polls that followed, while YS Rajasekhara Reddy is yet to find out whether cheap rice will do the trick for him.

History also suggests that every time one party promises something like this, the opponents follow suit, but the first one to make the promise seems to have a first-mover advantage. The UPA will be hoping that is indeed the case and that its implementation of the rural employment guarantee scheme will give its latest promise added credibility. The NDA, on the other hand, will hope that matching or bettering the promise will level the playing field.