Mutagenic evolution’ in electoral history

Expressbuzz, May 23, 2009

BHUBANESWAR: The 2009 elections has brought in a sort of mutagenic evolution in Orissa’s politico-electoral history. Against all expectations the BJD sweep has completely altered the poll arithmetic in the State.


Up to 2004 elections, the strategy was to consolidate the anti-Congress votes, but 2009 polls have seen a 360-degree change. The tussle is now between Naveen and anti-Naveen. And, with the Naveen-led regional outfit holding on to its vote-share like the Congress did earlier, the division of anti-Naveen votes between Cong and BJP provided the unexpected twist to the outcome.

Looking at voting pattern, BJD has garnered 7 per cent more votes than 2004 Lok Sabha polls but only 3 per cent more than 1999 Lok Sabha polls. In contrast, Congress has lost 7.25 per cent over 2004 and 4.25 per cent over 1999 polls. The BJP lost 2.11 per cent and around 8 per cent over 2004 and 1999 polls respectively.

In the Assembly elections, the BJD gained 11 per cent over 2004 and 10 per cent over 2000. The Congress lost 5 per cent over 2004 and 2000 polls equally while BJP lost 2 and 3 per cents over 2004 and 2000 polls respectively. Congress’ vote share plummeted for the first time despite being in opposition. The reason is the anti-establishment space is now occupied by Congress and BJP and the anti-incumbency vote was split between the two.

In Kandhamal Lok Sabha seat, BJD used to poll around 3.5 lakh votes since 1999 LS poll. This elections it polled 3.1 lakh but the Congress which got between 2.5-3.5 lakh earlier could garner only 1.6 lakh as BJP pocketed around 1.4 lakh anti-BJD votes.

In Koraput Congress used to poll around 2.7 to 3.3 lakh votes but in 2009 it could secure only 2.1 lakh as BJP walked away with 1.6 lakh and BSP another 46,000 anti-establishment votes.

In Berhampur, the BJD candidate used to poll around three lakh votes against that of 2.5-3.5 lakh votes by the Congress. But in 2009, BJP secured 79,000 anti-BJD votes and Congress polled only 2.6 lakh whereas BJD successfully retained its share of around 3 lakh votes. But in other constituencies like Kalahandi and Sundergarh the Congress was able to garner the maximum anti-incumbency votes to emerge victorious. The inference is BJP cut into Congress votes rather than BJD’s. It is only in Sambalpur that BJP took away 1.5 lakh votes to spike BJD’s chance.